Solving Probabilistic Airspace Congestion: Preliminary Benefits Analysis

In the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) a function called traffic flow management (TFM) seeks a balance between resource capacities and the demands placed upon them by air traffic. In general, capacity cannot be manipulated, and it is necessary for demand to be altered to meet a reduced capacity. Typically, demand can be altered in time (via delay, i.e., slowing flights so that the number per unit time is reduced) or space (via rerouting, when specific airspace sector capacity is reduced, e.g., during severe en route weather). This paper discusses the use of probability modeling for assessing airspace capacity, and discusses comparison of three techniques for generating solutions to the problem.