A Predictive Model of User Equipage Costs for Future Air Traffic Services and Capabilities: An ADS-B Example

Many new technological solutions are considered in efforts to improve the efficiency and capacity of the National Airspace System (NAS). Most of these technologies require the addition or modification of equipment not only on the ground, but also in the aircraft that operate in the NAS. Because it is increasingly difficult for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to justify mandates for forced aircraft equipage, it is often necessary to depend upon the aircraft owner/operators to voluntarily equip their aircraft with the needed technology. If these aircraft equipage costs are too high, the owner/operators may not equip their aircraft and the overall program might not proceed as desired.

Presented is a methodology that can be used to estimate the user equipage costs for future air traffic services and capabilities. Included is a forecast of future United States (U.S.) aircraft, broken down by model for Air Transport (AT) aircraft and by type for General Aviation (GA) aircraft. This forecast, when combined with model or type specific aircraft knowledge, provides an estimate of the future mix of aircraft capabilities, and can be utilized for any technology under study. The model considers aircraft classification and architecture to determine equipage states and identifies transition costs between each state. Also, methods for estimating owner/operator reactions and responses to the availability of the new technology, as well as the impact and cost of a possible equipage mandate, are presented.

An example of usage of the model is presented that analyzes Automatic Dependent Surveillance—Broadcast (ADS-B) equipage costs for the applications of broadcast surveillance and cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) operational procedures. The presented methodology may also be used for other technological solutions, including navigation and communications.