Air travel has become a key element of American life – commerce and leisure activities rely on it heavily. One of the most active markets in the U.S. is the Northeast.
Predicting Congestion in the Northeast U.S.: A Search for Indicators
Download Resources
PDF Accessibility
One or more of the PDF files on this page fall under E202.2 Legacy Exceptions and may not be completely accessible. You may request an accessible version of a PDF using the form on the Contact Us page.
The northeast U.S. is arguably the most congested airspace in the world. Four major New York airports have very high total operations counts and are concentrated geographically. Improvements are needed for flow managers' decision support systems, to support proactive intervention leading to smoother arrival flows. A CAASD team addressed this issue by investigating predictive "indicators", i.e., quantifications that foretell a future situation with respect to the balance of air traffic demand and capacity at airspace resources. Most flights in the northeast last less than 70 minutes, so predictions of airspace congestion at least one hour ahead would be most useful, since flow control could therefore extend to pre-departure. Predictions are needed especially during visual meteorological conditions, when congestion is not necessarily an expected outcome. Our approach was to examine historical data, in search of identifiable air traffic management problem situations. These situations were then played-back using an integrated real-time model, combining two previously built CAASD systems (the Self-Managed Arrival Resequencing Tool [SMART] and the Collaborative Routing Coordination Tool [CRCT]. The simulation clock was halted one hour prior to the known situation (congested or not), and predictive indicators were evaluated. This paper documents the successful discovery of a congestion prediction indicator.