Mental Models and Normal Errors in Naturalistic Decision Making

This paper outlines a framework for analyzing how decision makers achieve "situation awareness" in complex, dynamic and uncertain situations. We use this framework to analyze a typical case of human "error" in the command and control of a complex system. Our analysis shows that decision errors in this and other cases can be characterized as "normal" (i.e., rational) consequences of the decision makers' mental models. We conclude by suggesting that a mental models approach can provide unifying insights into the "heuristics and biases" proposed by previous researchers.