Deferability: A Concept for Incremental Air Traffic Management Decision Making

Dealing with uncertainty poses a challenge for traffic flow management (TFM) decision making, for example, when rerouting flights to avoid forecast convective weather. These decisions impose costs and delays on flights, and weather does not always materialize where it was forecast or with the forecasted severity. Deciding on a good strategy to take now when faced with uncertain and probabilistic forecasts is difficult for human decision makers. We have developed the deferability concept as an approach for building TFM decision support systems that make decisions incrementally. Simulation studies show this concept can be an effective way to manage airspace congestion using uncertain traffic and weather forecasts.