Application of a Fast-time Network Simulation to Air Traffic Flow Management Analysis

The Mid-Level Model (MLM) is a MITRE CAASD-developed fast-time network simulation of the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) and other world regions. We present a brief overview of MLM and an example of an MLM application to Air Traffic Flow Management (TFM). TFM actions are commonly used to mitigate capacity/demand imbalances within the NAS. Modeling TFM events has proven challenging in the past, partly because of weather forecast uncertainty, and partly because of the complexity and unpredictability associated with highly-interrelated traffic patterns and distributed decision-making in the NAS. We present results of an MLM simulation of a NAS TFM event in which weather effects are relatively small. This facilitates interpretation of the similarities and differences between simulation results and the actual event in terms of NAS operations and decision making, with relatively small weather-related complications. We conclude that TFM modeling shows promise as a tool to aid post-event TFM analysis, but the complex operational factors impose limits on the predictability of outcomes in TFM events.