Flight Path Forward: Preparing for the Challenges of Extreme Weather

Airports are flooding. Turbulence is causing more frequent injuries. And heat is rising, disrupting airport operations when it gets too high. 

MITRE is researching these and other impacts of extreme weather on aviation. Our goal is to provide decision-makers with the tools and insights they need to best prepare for these evolving challenges.

Heat Warning: Giving Airports Advance Notice of Coming High Temperatures

As temperatures across the globe continue to set new records, aviation stakeholders are taking notice.

“In 2017, the temperature hit 119 degrees Fahrenheit in Phoenix, and 50 flights involving aircraft not certified to fly above 118 degrees had to be cancelled,” says Ted Thrasher, who is leading MITRE’s research on extreme weather’s effects on aviation. “That was a wake-up call for the industry.”

On takeoff, aircraft need a longer distance to become airborne, and they take longer to climb at higher temperatures. “All of that has to be factored into an airport’s operations,” Thrasher says.

Likewise, for personnel who work outside to support the airport’s operations, heats in excess of 105 degrees require changes to scheduling, duties, and access to air conditioning. If temperatures exceed 110 degrees, even more caution is warranted to ensure that personnel do not experience heat stress. 

To help airports prepare for these situations, MITRE developed dashboards and web maps depicting heat patterns and predictions of heat impacts at major airports between now and 2060.

“Heat changes are not uniform across the U.S., so you end up with some areas that are going to face extreme heat concerns that you might not expect,” Thrasher notes. For example, MITRE’s models found that Minneapolis, Minnesota and Portland, Oregon may experience periods of excessive heat in the summer months. 

“With our research, we hope to provide advance notice to decision-makers in areas like these that might not even have heat on their radar.”

Weathering the Storm: Predicting Where Rainfall Is Likely to Increase 

Another weather-induced aviation concern—and a MITRE research area—is extreme rainfall. A case in point is Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International Airport, where in April 2023 a massive storm dumped seven months’ worth of rain in less than a day, causing runway flooding and the airport’s closure.

“We used a collection of climate datasets to create a model that could help us predict areas that are at increased risk for heavy rainfall events like that one,” Thrasher says. “The model can tell you the parts of the country that are likely to experience more rainfall in the coming years than they have historically.” And with that forewarning, he says, stakeholders can make better decisions—about airport siting, infrastructure investments, and more.

Turbulence Ahead: Mitigating the Effects of Intensifying Winds

In the air, more frequent and more intense turbulence is an emerging concern. 

“Turbulence is the leading cause of accidents, according to the National Transportation Safety Board, so it’s a significant safety issue,” Thrasher says. Airlines are also reporting increasing incidents involving severe turbulence in their operations, some of them causing injury.

 “We’re taking a holistic, multipronged approach to the risks of turbulence,” Thrasher says.

In one effort, Thrasher’s team is exploring a way to detect turbulence remotely, so that aircraft will no longer need to experience it to know that it is present. “To do that, we’re looking at combining data from several sources,” he says. 

One is a forward-looking detector aboard the aircraft that can help pilots “see” turbulence ahead of the vehicle that would otherwise be invisible. Other sources include the position data that almost all aircraft broadcast and weather satellite data, both of which can capture events that might be an indicator of turbulence. Additionally, the researchers plan to leverage sensors that record encountered turbulence, which some aircraft are equipped with. 

“Our goal is to bring all of that together to gain a more comprehensive picture of where turbulence is—and when and where it’s likely to occur,” Thrasher says.

Interior Design: Creating More Turbulence-Resistant Cabins

The team is also looking at safety improvements that could be made inside the aircraft.

“Injuries from turbulence tend to occur when people are out of their seats,” Thrasher notes. “They often happen because people become airborne and then land on something, like an armrest.”

As a result, the MITRE team is looking at everything from low-cost solutions—like installing more handholds in the aircraft—to making seats out of materials that would be less likely to cause injury if struck. 

That’s not as simple as it sounds. “Aircraft seats have to be able to withstand an impact of 25Gs, so they can’t be made out of something that’s easily crushable,” Thrasher explains. “But we have some ideas for adjustments that could be made to seat construction, as well as overhead bins and other parts of the aircraft interior that could cause injury if impacted during turbulence.”

The Next Frontier: Understanding the Effects of Turbulence on the Aircraft of the Future

The team’s research on turbulence is continuing to evolve. Over the next few years, they will examine how turbulence will affect the next generation of vehicles. 

For instance, drones are affected by heat and may not be able to fly at high temperatures. The same will be true of advanced air mobility vehicles, such as the electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles envisioned to become the “air taxis” of the future. Supersonic aircraft will fly at higher altitudes than today’s airplanes, in airspace that used to be considered free of turbulence. However, satellites are observing that turbulence is being experienced at higher altitudes than ever before. 

“As a result, these and other emerging operations need to consider turbulence in their plans,” Thrasher says. “Our research will inform those decisions.”