Mental Models and Normal Errors
2004 Award Winner
Kevin J. Burns, The MITRE Corporation
In this chapter, I outline a formal (Bayesian) framework and perform a detailed (computational) analysis of the Cuyahoga collision. The new contribution provided by my framework/analysis is to show that this prototypical "error" in situation awareness can be characterized as normal (normative) in a mathematical sense. I discuss the theoretical advantage of my framework in unifying the heuristics and biases proposed by previous researchers and the practical advantage of my framework in guiding the design of "decision support systems".
Copyright ©2004. Reprinted from How Professionals Make Decisions, Henry Montgomery, Raanan Lipshitz, and Berndt Brehmer, eds., Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Publishers, pp. 15–28.
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